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The 2025 F1 championship is going to end up with either Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, or Oscar Piastri. At the start of the second half of the season, nobody expected the Dutch driver to jump into contention, but with the aid of an upgraded Red Bull, he's right there with the McLaren duo.
With four races left, we have Lando Norris leading the championship with Oscar Piastri a point behind him. Max Verstappen is a further 35 points behind the Aussie as either of the three could win the title.
As we get ready for the last leg of the 2025 F1 championship, who is our pick for the title? Let's take a look as we try to analyze which way the cookie crumbles when all is said and done.
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Max Verstappen
Momentum
It's safe to say that when it comes to momentum in the second half of the season, it has been with Max Verstappen. The Dutch driver has not finished a race off the podium and has picked up three wins as well. The improvements made by Red Bull with the floor and the team, seemingly more optimistic about its outlook, have been positive as well.
Strength
If we're talking about Max Verstappen's biggest strength, then, as Jenson Button once put it bluntly, "He is arguably one of the greatest talents to drive a Formula 1 car." Once you have that in the bag, it certainly helps. To add to this, the driver has been in these conditions in the past and excelled. These championship battles are nothing new to him.
Weakness
It's the 36-point deficit to the top. Irrespective of how good the car is or how brilliant the Dutch driver himself is, Max Verstappen needs to outscore the championship leader by at least 9 points per race weekend to keep himself in the fight.
The unknown
The biggest unknown not only for Max Verstappen but also for the fans is the kind of competitiveness that Red Bull can bring to the race weekends. After Mexico, where the team got thrashed completely, there's a question mark on what kind of challenge the RB21 can put together.
Oscar Piastri
Momentum
If there is one driver who is probably on the wrong side of the momentum, then that's Oscar Piastri. After the race in Zandvoort, the Australian looked like a nailed-on favorite to win the championship. The fact that he's relinquished the championship lead to Lando Norris and suffered a major dent in points advantage to Max Verstappen has been a shock to many.
Strength
Although it does appear that Piastri has gone through a major downturn in terms of his form in the car, he's not let this take a toll on how he's driving or behaving when the microphone is put in front of him.
You listen to him talk in front of the media, and there's a sense of acceptance that things have not gone his way. At the same time, it doesn't appear that his shoulders have fallen off. The ability to keep a calm head when things are not going your way is a keen quality that should help him in these last four races.
Weakness
One has to acknowledge that there might be a reality where Oscar Piastri might not be the fastest driver in a McLaren. With Lando Norris finding his feet in the car, we've slowly seen the momentum move towards the Brit, who is now more often than not the faster driver.
If you want to win the championship, fundamentally, you have to be faster than your teammate. If Piastri is ceding ground on that front, then that should be a worry.
The Unknown
Could it be anything other than the drastic drop-off in the last two races? The kind of races that the Australian has had in Austin and Mexico do shake the confidence of a driver. Can he bring things back to a semblance of normalcy? That's still a bit of an unknown at this stage.
Lando Norris
Momentum
Unlike Max Verstappen, who has stolen the spotlight when it comes to the manner in which he's gone through the points deficit, Lando Norris has done so in a more under-the-radar manner.
After the DNF in Zandvoort, Norris has not finished a single race behind Oscar Piastri. He's not gone on a rampage and won multiple races, but what he's done is kept himself in contention, and then came Mexico, where he dominated the field.
Strength
It's safe to say that Lando Norris is now the faster of the two McLaren drivers. He is now comfortable with the car and is able to extract the most from it compared to Oscar Piastri, who has been a step behind. At the end of the day, in F1, if you are a fast driver, it solves most of the problems, and at the moment, Norris is a fast driver.
Weakness
One area where maybe both Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen hold an edge over Lando Norris is racecraft. During his battle with Charles Leclerc in the F1 US GP, the term used by Jolyon Palmer to describe Norris' wheel-to-wheel racing was 'predictable.' If you lack the necessary skill or instinct during crucial moments, you risk losing out.
The Unknown
The biggest question mark for Norris is how he handles the spotlight. The driver is now the championship leader, and with that comes the spotlight and expectations.
These were the two things that were not on Lando when he slowly but steadily ate into Oscar Piastri's championship deficit and took the lead. However, we've seen the Brit crumble in the past when the lights are bright. Is the new Lando capable of handling the pressure? We just don't know it yet.
Max Verstappen vs. Lando Norris vs. Oscar Piastri: Who are we picking?
Before we share our prediction, let's talk about the X-factor that could tip the scales in either direction. Let's talk about the teams and the respective operational acumen of both Red Bull and McLaren.
On one side, the Austrian team has been here and done that multiple times. On the other hand, we have McLaren, a team that has not exuded confidence in this area of race management.
When we are looking at the crunch moments in this title battle, it will come down to how the teams manage the situation. If we had to make a pick, we'd go with Red Bull coming out on top in these circumstances, and when that is the case, for us, it tips the scales in favor of Max Verstappen.
We're backing the Dutch driver to overcome a 36-point deficit in four races to clinch what would be his fifth world championship in a row.
