2025 F1 Mexican GP: Race Predictions

The grid for the 2025 Mexican GP has been set, with Lando Norris on pole and the Ferrari duo of Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton behind him. The McLaren driver put together a sensational lap, and no other driver was close.

Considering how the championship race is unfolding at this point and where both Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri are on the grid, this could not have come at a better time for Norris.

Historically, the Mexican GP has not been the most action-packed. But what can we expect from the latest iteration? Let's take a look.

#1 The start could potentially decide the race

The F1 Mexican GP has had a major issue with tires that are too hard and don't degrade much. As a result, one-stoppers have become the norm. Add thin air, which weakens the DRS's impact, into the mix, and you have a scenario where overtaking requires a massive pace differential.

The bunched-up grid right now means that we don't have that differential in place. As a result, it won't come as a surprise if drivers finish the race in the same positions they find themselves after the first lap.

#2 Tire management could be a factor

It should be a single-stop race. What we have seen is that even the soft tires have been durable enough for multiple runs and decent stint lengths. At the same time, it is still a soft tire. The mediums, according to Pirelli, can run the entire race, given the tire's longevity and performance.

With that being said, there's going to be a trade-off between opting for a soft or a hard tire for either stint, and that call might prove to be crucial for many teams here.

#3 A Max Verstappen podium is possible, but not a guarantee

A P5 start means Max Verstappen could make up a couple of places at the start. At the same time, this is not a guarantee because the drivers around him have nothing to lose, while he does. Verstappen can afford to be aggressive with the likes of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, but he cannot do so with George Russell, Lewis Hamilton, and Kimi Antonelli around him.

The Red Bull didn't have the best race pace in practice, but the car should be competitive against Ferrari and Mercedes. Could a podium be on the cards for Verstappen at the F1 Mexican GP? Yes. But it's not a given.

#4 A Lewis Hamilton podium is on the cards

Lewis Hamilton broke the record for the most races for Ferrari without a podium in Austin. This is his 20th race with the team and he has yet to finish inside the top three.

He starts the Mexican GP in what is arguably the best position to start the race from. If he ends up in the lead as well, it won't be a surprise, as has often been the case around this track.

With that being said, looking at the pace that the Ferrari has shown, this is the perfect opportunity for Hamilton to make the podium.

#5 Lando Norris wins the F1 Mexican GP

While we're picking Lando Norris to win the F1 Mexican GP, we're not confident. The McLaren driver has shown throughout the weekend that when it comes to performance around this track, he has no parallel.

There are, however, a couple of issues. The first is that he's starting the race from pole position on a track with a 40% pole-to-conversion rate. Moreover, tires won't show much degradation, making the start all the more important.

With that being said, the pace shown by the British driver has certainly been quite impressive. Even if he loses the lead at the start of the race, he might still be the favorite to win the F1 Mexican GP.