Paris Masters 2025: Denis Shapovalov vs Joao Fonseca preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and betting tips

Match Details

Fixture: Denis Shapovalov vs Joao Fonseca

Date: October 28, 2025

Tournament: 2025 Rolex Paris Masters

Round: First round (Round of 64)

Venue: La Défense Arena, Paris, France

Category: Masters 1000

Surface: Hard (Indoors)

Prize Money: €6,128,940

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

Denis Shapovalov vs Joao Fonseca preview

Shapovalov at the 2025 US Open - Source: Getty

Shapovalov, ranked World No. 24, holds a 26-21 record this season, showcasing glimpses of his high potential. The 26-year-old Canadian owns two titles in 2025, including a dominant run in Los Cabos, where he dropped just 18 games en route to claiming his second trophy.

Fonseca, meanwhile, is in rapid ascent. The Brazilian, currently ranked World No. 28, holds an impressive 25-15 record and has already lifted two ATP Tour titles this year. He is flagged as one of the sport’s next big stars.

While Fonseca’s pace and fearless offensive game make him a rising threat, Shapovalov’s experience, big serve, and tour-level consistency give him an advantage.

Denis Shapovalov vs Joao Fonseca head-to-head

The Paris Masters first-round match between Shapovalov and Fonseca will be their second encounter on the ATP Tour. Just days ago, they faced off in the quarterfinal of the Swiss Indoors. Fonseca won that match after Shapovalov retired with the Brazilian leading 3-6, 6-3, 4-1. Fonseca leads their head-to-head 1-0.

Denis Shapovalov vs Joao Fonseca odds

Player Name	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Denis Shapovalov	+100	+0.5 (-115)	Over 22.5 (-135)
Joao Fonseca	-130	-0.5 (-125)	Under 22.5 (-110)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

Denis Shapovalov vs Joao Fonseca prediction

Fonseca at the 2025 US Open - Source: Getty

Since the US Open, Shapovalov has remained active on tour, showing steady form. In Shanghai, he beat Christopher O’Connell before losing to Jiri Lehecka. In Stockholm, he posted strong wins over Leo Borg and Elias Ymer before falling to Casper Ruud in the semifinals. At the Swiss Indoors in Basel, Shapovalov lost to Fonseca.

The Brazilian youngster, meanwhile, has been in terrific form. After Davis Cup and Laver Cup victories over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Flavio Cobolli, the 19-year-old carried that confidence to Basel. There, he beat Shapovalov in the quarters, Jaume Munar in the semis, and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the final to claim his maiden ATP 500 title.

With his momentum and confidence at a season high, Fonseca could once again edge Shapovalov, this time in three tight sets.

Pick: Fonseca to win in three sets.