Naomi Osaka predictions: Ranking Japanese's Grand Slam chances in 2026 and predicting where she will finish in year-end WTA rankings

This year, Naomi Osaka enjoyed her best season on Tour since returning from maternity leave. Not only did she reach a big final in Montreal, but also returned to the top-20 in the WTA rankings. She ended the year ranked No. 16 — her best since 2021.

Heading into 2026, expectations will be high from the four-time Grand Slam champion. She is likely to begin her season Down Under with a few warm-up tournaments ahead of the year’s first Grand Slam, the Australian Open.

Osaka has already won two titles at Melbourne Park and a return to the venue is bound to bring back good memories. She has not done particularly well here in the last three years, going 4-3 in terms of overall win-loss and will be keen on changing that.

However, given how well-rested and tuned-in a lot of the big names are at the start of the year, breaking through can be a difficult task. Osaka has the power-packed name to do well in the conditions, but will need to be at her best to beat the likes of Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina and even defending champion Madison Keys.

The Japanese has also traditionally struggled at the French Open and Wimbledon, having failed to even make the second week at either of the two events. While she has the potential to improve on those showings, the chances of a title and even a deep run are slim.

Osaka’s best shot at getting her hands on a fifth Grand Slam trophy will come at the US Open. It is the venue where she lifted her first title at this level, beating Serena Williams no less in the 2018 final.

The former champion has also traditionally played better at the back end of the year and the fast hardcourts in North American are best-suited for her game. That said, expecting a title at at time when the depth in the women's game is at a pinnacle would be a big ask.

---

Naomi Osaka's prospect 2026 year-end rankings

Naomi Osaka at The Garden Cup 2025. (Source: Getty)

Naomi Osaka will have plenty of opportunities to build her ranking even further in the first half of the 2026 season. Her showing at some of the early tournaments this year was not up to the mark, meaning that she has very few points to defend.

A good run during the Australian Open swing, in the Middle East and the Sunshine Double could help her edge back closer to the top-10. She will also have a good shot at adding a fair few points to her tally on clay and grass, but will need to find her footing on the surfaces where she has struggled in the past.

The second half of the season will be harder for her as she has big points to defend from her run to the Toronto final and the US Open semifinal.

All things considered, Osaka could find herself knocking at the door of the top-10. However, considering the level of consistency that the top bracket has shown in the last couple of years, breaching the barrier and staying among the elite will take a mammoth effort.

A lot will depend on Osaka’s ability to improve her performances on clay and grass, but as it stands, her 2026 year-end ranking could remain in the same ballpark at this year.