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Match Details
Fixture: (1) Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez
Date: September 25, 2025
Tournament: Japan Open Tennis Championships
Round: First Round (Round of 32)
Venue: Ariake Coliseum, Tokyo, Japan
Category: ATP 500
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $2,226,470
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez preview
Top seed Carlos Alcaraz will take on Sebastian Baez in the first round of the Japan Open 2025.
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A quarterfinal showing at the Australian Open, followed by a title in Rotterdam, were Alcaraz's best results at the start of the season. He wrapped up the hardcourt swing with a semifinal exit from the Indian Wells Masters and a surprising second-round exit from the Miami Open.
Alcaraz hit the ground running once he set foot on clay. He won the Monte-Carlo Masters, was the runner-up at the Barcelona Open, and then won the Italian Open and the French Open. He continued his good run of form on grass, winning the title at Queen's Club. His title defense at Wimbledon came to an end with a 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 loss to Jannik Sinner in the final.
Alcaraz won the Cincinnati Open upon his return to hardcourts, although Sinner's mid-match retirement in the final was an anti-climactic end. The two met in the US Open final a couple of weeks later, with the Spaniard this time coming out on top in four sets (2-6, 6-3, 1-6, 4-6). He was in action at the Laver Cup over the weekend, where Taylor Fritz snapped his 13-match winning streak. While he bounced back to beat Francisco Cerundolo, Team Europe came up short in the end.
All of Baez's best results have come on clay this year. He won the Rio Open and reached the final of the Chile Open and the Bucharest Open, going down to Laslo Djere and Flavio Cobolli, respectively. Aside from making the second round of the Cincinnati Open and the Winston-Salem Open, he hasn't done much on hardcourts. He recently lost in the first round of the US Open.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez head-to-head
Alcaraz leads their rivalry 2-0. He won their previous meeting at the US Open 2022 after Beaz's retirement in the third set.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez prediction
Alcaraz has opted to compete in Tokyo this week instead of Beijing, where he's the defending champion. He has been on a roll for the past few months, his disappointing loss to Fritz at the Laver Cup notwithstanding. He has reached the final of every tournament he has competed in since April, claiming six titles from eight finals.
Baez's poor record on hardcourt makes him the underdog in this match-up. He has a 2-7 record on the surface this year, and has gone 22-51 on hardcourts this decade. Alcaraz, meanwhile, has a 28-4 record on the surface just this year.
Furthermore, Baez has a 1-17 record against top 10 players. His poor record against elite players and on hardcourts tilts this contest heavily in the in-form Alcaraz's favor.
Pick: Carlos Alcaraz to win in straight sets.
