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Match Details
Fixture: (1) Carlos Alcaraz vs (9) Lorenzo Musetti
Date: November 13, 2025
Tournament: ATP Finals
Round: Group Stage
Venue: Inalpi Arena, Turin, Italy
Category: Year-end championships
Surface: Hard (Indoor)
Prize Money: $15,500,000
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti preview
World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz will face ninth seed Lorenzo Musetti in the group stage of the ATP Finals 2025.
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Alcaraz kicked off his campaign with a 7-6 (5), 6-2 win over seventh seed Alex de Minaur. He was up against sixth seed Taylor Fritz in his next match of the round-robin phase. The Spaniard squandered his early break advantage in the first set, and didn't get another opportunity to inch ahead for the rest of the set.
The ensuing tie-break was all about Fritz, who stunned Alcaraz with his level to take the set. The two were on even footing for most of the second set. Fritz served to force yet another tie-break but Alcaraz dialed up the intensity at this point, snagging a break of serve to claim the set.
Alcaraz landed the first blow in the deciding set with a break of serve in the sixth game. While Fritz saved three match points on his own serve in the eighth game, the top seed served out the match himself in the next game for a 6-7 (2), 7-5, 6-3 win.
Musetti's ATP Finals debut began on a losing note, going down 6-3, 6-4 to Fritz. He took on de Minaur in a must-win match for him. The two were neck-and-neck for most of the first set, until the Italian pulled ahead with a three-game run towards the end to clinch the opener.
De Minaur responded with his own three-game run to take the second set, and rode this wave of momentum to a 5-3 lead in the third set. On the brink of defeat, Musetti turned the tables on the Aussie by sweeping the next four games for a 7-5, 3-6, 7-5 win.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti head-to-head
Alcaraz leads their rivalry 6-1. He won their previous meeting at the French Open 2025 following Musetti's mid-match retirement.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti odds
(Odds via BetMGM)
Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti prediction
Alcaraz raised his level to survive a spirited challenge from Fritz. However, he's not in the clear just yet, with all four players from his group still in contention for a semifinal spot. He won 74 percent of his first serve points, and fired 47 winners in contrast to 38 unforced errors.
Musetti looked down and out against de Minaur but had enough left in the tank to flip the script. This marked his maiden win at the ATP Finals. He won 63 percent of points behind his first serve, and hit 22 winners compared to 28 unforced errors.
Musetti won his very first meeting against Alcaraz, and has never won another match since then. They've already met thrice this year, and the Italian picked up an injury in two of their three meetings. He even retired from their semifinal showdown at the French Open.
Their only two matches on hardcourts were won convincingly by Alcaraz. He dropped nine games across those matches, and lost his serve only once. The World No. 1 will be the favorite to extend his winning streak against Musetti based on their rivalry.
Pick: Carlos Alcaraz to win in straight sets.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti betting tips
Tip 1: Carlos Alcaraz to win.
Tip 2: The match will have at least 18 games.
