ATP Finals 2025: Draw analysis, format explained and predictions ft. potential Jannik Sinner vsTaylor Fritz SF

Jannik Sinner will arrive at the 2025 ATP Finals in Turin looking to defend the title that he lifted 12 months ago. He will be joined by seven-time champion Novak Djokovic and anothet former winner Alexander Zverev, both of whom will also be looking to end their year on a high.

Other big names in action will include reigning French and US Open champ Carlos Alcaraz, the American duo of Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton and Alex de Minaur. One spot at the tournament is still up for grabs. With main draw action set to begin soon, let's take a look at the format and the prospects of the players in fray:

2025 ATP Finals Format

The eight players who have qualified for the ATP Finals have been drawn into two groups: Jimmy Connors Group and Bjorn Borg Group. Each player will play every other member of the group once in a round-robin format. The two top-finishers from each group will move to the knockout stage. The top finisher of each other group will take on the second-place finisher from the other group in the semifinals, with the winners moving into the summit clash.

Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz, Taylor Fritz eye first ATP Finals crown

Alex de Minaur will make his second appearance at the ATP Finals. (Source: Getty)

Carlos Alcaraz finds himself in a group with players who he has dominated the head-to-head against in recent years -- Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz and Alex de Minaur. Only Djokovic holds a positive overall win-loss record (5-4) against the top seed but the two have split their two meetings this year. Both the matches were on hardcourts and were rather keenly contested.

Alcaraz definitely has the edge in terms of form, having won Cincinnati and Tokyo titles and making the finals at Wimbledon before capturing the US Open trophy. His loss to Cameron Norrie on the indoor hardcourts of Paris, however, cast a shadow of doubt over his abilities in quicker conditions.

The one player who does enjoy those conditions in particular is Fritz, who possesses one of the biggest serves on Tour. The American is No. 3 in the 2025 serve stat leaderboard with a rating of 295 and acr average of 11.4 per match. He will rely on the big weapon to win him a fair few easy points in Turin as well. Batting a 0-11 wipeout against Djokovic, Fritz has beaten his other two opponents in recent matches (Alcaraz indoors at the Laver Cup) and will take confidence from those wins.

The odds are stacked against Djokovic and De Minaur, who haven't had the best second half of the season. The Serb's seven titles and 50-18 win-loss ar the event puts him in a league of his own, but at the same time, his overall 2025 record of 36-11 means that he has the least number of matches under his belt throughout the season. While he did play a selective schedule, the lack of match wins against the big names may come back to haunt him.

The Aussie, although consistent, has not won a title since the Citi Open back in July. His defensive prowess and quick movement too are not the most useful of weapons in indoor conditions and he could find himself on the backfoot against power-hitters far too often.

Picks: Alcaraz and Fritz

Bjorn Borg Group: Jannik Sinner looks to defend title

Alexander Zverev is a former ATP Finals champion. (Source: Getty)

Defending champion Jannik Sinner leads the second group By finishing second in the ATP Race, he has avoided the only player that he has a negative win-loss record against: Carlos Alcaraz He otherwise leads Alexander Zverev 5-4 and Ben Shelton 7-1.

The big serves from Zverev and Shelton should have been a cause of concern for Sinner given how effective they can be indoors. That said, Sinner himself leads the 2025 serve stats leaderboard. While his ace average per match, 63, might not be the most impressive, he has won the highest 91.3% of service games for an unmatched overall rating of 297.3. The Italian also found his mojo late in 2025, capturing a Grand Slam titlr at Wimbledon and reaching the US Open final. In fact, he has lost only one completed match (the US Open final to Carlos Alcaraz) on hard courts all year.

For Zverev and Shelton, finding their range on serve will be key Both men feature in the top-10 of the serve leaderboard, but have not had the best lead-up to the season-ending extravaganza. While the American has gone a modest 8-4 since lifting the trophy in Toronto (his only title this year), the German would still be reeling from the 6-0, 6-1 drubbing he faced at the hands of Sinner in the Paris semifinals. In fact, both of the latter's last two losses have come to the Italian

The last player in the group. Lorenzo Musetti or Felix Auger Aliassime, could shake things up. That said, Auger Aliassime, the more in-form of the two names is less likely to qualify In that case, Musetti, who has won only 41 matches, the lowest from the field, this year, may find the going tough. That would leave Shelton and Zverev in a direct shoot-out for the second semifinal spot and that's where the German's 4-0 mastery over his younger opponent may give him an edge.

Picks: Sinner and Zverev