Alex De Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and betting tips | ATP Finals 2025

Match Details

Fixture: (7) Alex de Minaur vs (9) Lorenzo Musetti

Date: November 12, 2025

Tournament: ATP Finals 2025

Round: Group Stage (Bjorn Borg Group)

Venue: Inalpi Arena, Turin, Italy

Category: Year-end championships

Surface: Hard (Indoor)

Prize Money: $15,500,000

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti preview

Musetti at the Nitto ATP Finals 2025 - Day 1 - Source: Getty

Alex de Minaur will face Lorenzo Musetti in the ATP Finals on Wednesday (November 12).

De Minaur has raised his level this year. Apart from a title-winning run in Washington, he secured a runner-up finish in Rotterdam. The Australian also reached the quarterfinals of the US Open, but lost to Felix Auger-Aliassime in four sets.

De Minaur entered Turin after a semifinal appearance in Vienna and a quarterfinal exit in Bercy. He started his campaign with a hard-fought loss against Carlos Alcaraz in the first group-stage encounter. The Spaniard outclassed him in straight sets, 7-6(5), 6-2.

Musetti at the Nitto ATP Finals 2025 - Day 2 - Source: Getty

Meanwhile, Lorenzo Musetti has had a propitious season so far. Apart from runner-up finishes in Monte Carlo, Chengdu, and Athens, he also reached the semifinals in Paris and the quarterfinals in New York.

The 23-year-old is making his debut at the ATP Finals this year. He started his campaign with an ordinary performance against Taylor Fritz in the first group-stage round. The American defeated him in one hour and 42 minutes, 6-3, 6-4.

Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti head-to-head

Musetti leads the head-to-head against De Minaur 3-1. He defeated the Australian most recently in the 2025 Madrid Open.

Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti odds

Player Name	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Alex De Minaur	-275	-3.5 (-110)	Under 22.5 ( -120)
Lorenzo Musetti	+230	+3.5 (-110)	Over 22.5 ( +105)

All odds are sourced by Oddschecker.

Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti prediction

De Minaur will be eager to open his account against Musetti on Wednesday. The Australian faces Taylor Fritz in the final group-stage round and has already lost to Alcaraz in his first.

Meanwhile, Musetti is also in a must-win situation against De Minaur. If he fails to get a result in this bout, he's most likely to be eliminated from Turin. The Italian faces Alcaraz in his final group-stage match on Friday.

De Minaur is slightly more offensive than his opposite number. He's lost to the Italian thrice on tour, but neither of them was on hardcourts.

Considering their match fitness and form on tour, an even contest will be on the cards in Turin. De Minaur has gotten more rest than Musetti in recent weeks, which could prove to be the differential in this encounter.

Pick: De Minaur to win in three sets.

Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti betting tips

Tip 1: Match to have more than 25 games.

Tip 2: Musetti to save more break points than De Minaur.