UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Carlos Ulberg vs. Dominick Reyes

Following a weekend without an event, the UFC heads to Australia next weekend. The event will mark the promotion's fourth visit to Perth and their first there since August 2024.

UFC Fight Night: Carlos Ulberg vs. Dominick Reyes features a big-time light-heavyweight headliner, as well as a number of other intriguing bouts.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Carlos Ulberg vs. Dominick Reyes.

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#1. UFC light-heavyweight bout: Carlos Ulberg vs. Dominick Reyes

While the rest of next weekend's card isn't all that stacked in terms of highly ranked fighters, the same cannot be said about the headliner.

After all, Carlos Ulberg is currently ranked at No.3 in the light-heavyweight division, and this fight could well be the last stop for him before a title shot if he can find a way to win.

'Black Jag' is probably too old at 34 to be considered a prospect or the bright young thing at 205 pounds. However, in what is an ageing division, he might well be the biggest challenge for the winner of the upcoming rematch between Magomed Ankalaev and Alex Pereira.

Ulberg is riding an eight-fight win streak, dating back to 2022. Since losing his octagon debut - a fight that, realistically, he may not have been quite ready for - he's been perfect.

So, can he take out former title challenger Dominick Reyes, a fighter who was basically in Ulberg's position back in 2019?

At that point, 'The Devastator' was 11-0, and a knockout of Chris Weidman put him in line for a shot at then-champ Jon Jones.

Reyes pushed Jones all the way in a fight many people believed he won. After that, though, it was all downhill. His chin was cracked by Jan Blachowicz, Jiri Prochazka and Ryan Spann, and the Spann knockout seemed to signal the end for 'The Devastator'.

However, he returned from nearly two years away in 2024 to upset Dustin Jacoby, and has since knocked out both Anthony Smith and Nikita Krylov.

So, is Reyes back to his best? It's hard to say. Realistically, he never lost the skills that got him to the top - he's still a long, rangy striker with excellent timing and combinations. The issue was always more that his chin simply couldn't take big power shots.

Fighters can regain their durability after a long time away - Andrei Arlovski is a classic example - but questions will always hang over whether Reyes can take a big shot.

Unfortunately for him, Ulberg is a pretty big hitter. Sure, he wasn't able to knock out the notoriously durable Blachowicz in his toughest fight to date in March, but he did dispatch the likes of Alonzo Menifield and Ihor Potieria.

More to the point, Ulberg is not simply an unskilled power slugger. A training partner of Israel Adesanya, 'Black Jag' was a professional kickboxer before he turned to MMA and is very smooth on the feet, showing excellent poise in his win over Volkan Oezdemir in particular.

Overall, then, Ulberg may be a rare example of a fighter who was better losing his first UFC bout than winning it. By losing his hype train, he's been able to develop his skills while flying under the radar.

The 'Black Jag' that Reyes will face, then, will come into the bout battle-tested against a pair of the toughest fighters in the division. He'll also know that a win here should net him a title shot.

Given that he'll also have the support of the crowd, then, it's hard to imagine him losing. Reyes may have looked good against the likes of Smith and Krylov, but realistically, both of those men are already past their prime.

The same cannot be said for Ulberg, and given the question marks over Reyes' chin, if 'Black Jag' doesn't get too wild early, he should be able to find the right spot with a big shot and score a knockout.

The Pick: Ulberg via second-round KO

#2. UFC featherweight bout: Jack Jenkins vs. Ramon Taveras

Given that these two men hold a combined octagon record of 4-3, quite why this fight has been positioned as the co-headliner - as of the time of writing, at least - is anyone's guess.

Chances are, it has to do with the fact that Jack Jenkins is a popular Aussie fighter. He was unfortunate to lose his debut via injury, but looked excellent when he defeated Herbert Burns last August.

However, 'Phar' was then well beaten by Gabriel Santos, derailing his hype train. So, can he rebound by beating Ramon Taveras here?

To tell the truth, we don't know all that much about Taveras. 'The Savage' is 1-1 in the octagon, and 10-3 overall. While both of his fights have been quite exciting to watch, he was outclassed by Davey Grant, and only edged out Serhiy Sidey in a very tight call.

To add to this, Taveras missed weight for the latter fight, and this will be the first time he's fought in the octagon at 145 pounds.

Theoretically, that should play into Jenkins' hands. Taveras might feel more comfortable at 145 pounds, but 'Phar' is likely to be the bigger man, and before he was submitted by Santos, he did at least show some half-decent grappling skills.

It's always tricky to pick a winner in a fight like this where both men have a relatively low level of UFC experience. However, given the home advantage, it also doesn't feel like the promotion would set up Jenkins in a fight he's likely to lose.

Expect a shootout here, then, but one where Jenkins comes out on top.

The Pick: Jenkins via second-round TKO

#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card

In a light-heavyweight bout, Jimmy Crute takes on Ivan Erslan. A real Aussie favorite, Crute still hasn't turned 30 despite plenty of octagon experience.

'The Brute' returned from two years away earlier this year, securing a draw with Rodolfo Bellato before defeating Marcin Prachnio via armbar. A heavy-handed brawler with solid ground skills, Crute is defensively porous at times, but still dangerous.

Is this a good fight for him? On paper, yes. Erslan has yet to win in the octagon, and he only narrowly survived in his most recent fight with Navajo Stirling. More to the point, he looks plodding, while Crute has shown himself to be surprisingly quick at times.

With that considered, given this is in front of a home crowd, the pick is Crute via KO.

In a welterweight bout, Jake Matthews takes on Neil Magny. This is an interesting bout because it's a good opportunity for both men. For Magny, it's a nice change of pace as he's against another veteran rather than a hot prospect, and for Matthews, it's a chance to steal Magny's spot as the division's premier gatekeeper.

To be fair to 'The Celtic Kid', he's been on an excellent run. Outside of a close loss to Matthew Semelsberger, he's only lost to Sean Brady and Michael Morales since 2019.

Magny offers a different threat, though. He'll enjoy a seven-inch reach advantage, and knows exactly how to use it, both on the feet with his jab and on the ground too.

More to the point, 'The Haitian Sensation' has only ever lost to real specialists throughout his entire octagon career. Matthews is good, but like Magny, he's a jack-of-all-trades. This one will be close, but the pick is Magny via decision.

Finally, at lightweight, Tom Nolan takes on Charlie Campbell. Given these two tend to win via knockout, it's likely that we could see a real shootout here.

Of the two, though, Nolan probably ought to be slightly favored. Not only will he be fighting at home, but he's looked excellent in his three octagon wins, chaining strikes together and really taking the fight to his opponent.

'Big Train' is probably still unproven enough that Campbell could pull out a win, but given the home advantage, the pick is Nolan via decision.

#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC heavyweight bout: Justin Tafa vs. Louie Sutherland

UFC light-heavyweight bout: Navajo Stirling vs. Rodolfo Bellato

UFC strawweight bout: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Alexia Thainara

UFC welterweight bout: Oban Elliott vs. Jonathan Micallef

UFC middleweight bout: Cameron Rowston vs. Andre Petroski

UFC bantamweight bout: Colby Thicknesse vs. Josias Musasa

UFC lightweight bout: Jamie Mullarkey vs. Rolando Bedoya

UFC bantamweight fight: Michelle Montague vs. Luana Carolina

UFC heavyweight bout: Brando Pericic vs. Elisha Ellison

About the author

Scott is a veteran MMA writer with over two decades of experience, including his ongoing tenure in Sportskeeda, which began seven years ago. He has written over 3000 pieces for the organization, while also covering football. Before joining Sportskeeda, Scott wrote articles for websites like The Oratory and Inside Pulse MMA.

Scott has a degree in history, which drives his research skills and helps him compile accurate information. His long stint in the field helps Scott provide a clear take on important topics, such as the criticism of promotions regarding fighter pay. While he feels fighters deserve a bigger revenue share, he doesn’t want MMA to suffer with purse-split issues.

Scott’s work has been previously reshared by the former UFC middleweight champion Chris Weidman. He uses credible sources, such as the UFC’s official website, during the writing process.

His dedication to MMA writing won him the Feature Writer of the Month award for Sportskeeda in November 2021.

Outside of work, Scott likes to go to the gym, walk his dog, and travel.

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