Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction and Betting Tips | December 7th 2025    

Toluca will entertain Monterrey at Estadio Nemesio Díez in Liga MX action on Sunday. Following a narrow lead in the first leg, we expect the rematch to be another cracker.

Toluca vs Monterrey Preview

Both teams are vying for a place in the final of Liga MX's final phase. In the semi-final first leg, Toluca suffered a slim 1-0 defeat at Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe. The hosts' head coach, Antonio Mohamed, described the setback as a surmountable hurdle, as he eyes a possible aggregate win at home.

Diablos Rojos finished atop the standings in the Apertura regular phase to earn a direct qualification to the quarterfinals of the final phase. Toluca overcame the challenge of FC Juárez 2-1 on aggregate to progress to the semi-finals. The hosts' 1-0 defeat to Monterrey on Thursday was their first setback in 10 matches.

Monterrey finished fifth in the regular phase, earning qualification to the quarterfinals, where they defeated 2024 double (Clausura & Apertura) champions, Club América. América were among the favorites of this edition, and so knocking them out came with an extra boost of confidence.

Rayados were hoping for a more comfortable outcome in the semi-final first leg against Toluca, but they managed a 1-0 win at home. Breaching Toluca’s hermetic defense could make a difference in the second leg, as the hosts will likely deploy an attacking approach. It could free up spaces behind for the visitors’ sharp wingers to exploit.

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Toluca vs Monterrey Head-to-Head and Key Numbers

• Toluca have won twice, drawn once and lost twice in their last five matches against Monterrey.
• Toluca have won thrice and drawn twice in their last five matches at home against Monterrey.
• Toluca have won thrice and drawn twice in their last five matches at home in all competitions.
• Monterrey have drawn once and lost four times in their last five matches on the road.
• Toluca have won twice, drawn twice and lost once in their last five matches while Monterrey have won twice, drawn once and lost twice. Form Guide: Toluca - L-D-W-W-D, Monterrey – W-L-W-L-D.

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Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction

Toluca will seek to balance their play between defensive and attacking patterns to avoid exposing themselves to counters.

Monterrey are not expected to protect their tiny lead but will put men forward in a bid to disrupt the visitors at the core.

Toluca are the favorites based on form and home advantage.

Prediction: Toluca 3-1 Monterrey

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Toluca vs Monterrey Betting Tips

Tip 1: Result - Toluca to win

Tip 2: Game to have over 2.5 goals – Yes

Tip 3: Toluca to score first – Yes

Tip 4: Monterrey to score - Yes