Kuldeep Yadav or Arshdeep Singh - who should India pick for AUS vs IND 2025 1st T20I?

Team India have a huge call to make over their bowling combination for the upcoming first T20I against Australia at the Manuka Oval in Canberra, scheduled for Wednesday, October 29. Hardik Pandya's unavailability, the conditions, and the opposition, are all going to be massive elements that will ultimately decide the final playing XI.

There are a few names in the bowling department that arguably select themselves, which includes the trio of Jasprit Bumrah, Varun Chakaravarthy, Axar Patel, and Shivam Dube as the sixth-choice bowler. Although there are two slots remaining, India cannot afford to name two specialist bowlers since it affects their batting depth greatly.

As a result, Harshit Rana, who recently impressed in the second ODI with a cameo, might also be in the mix. Leaving the final slot down to the pair of Arshdeep Singh and Kuldeep Yadav. In subcontinent assignments, like the 2025 Champions Trophy and the 2025 Asia Cup, it was the spinner who won the selection battle. It remains to be seen if things change in Australia. During the ODI series, Arshdeep played two matches, while Kuldeep featured in the last match.

On that note, let us take a look at the factors that will help us determine who India should select between Kuldeep Yadav and Arshdeep Singh for the first T20I against Australia.

#1 India's only visit to Manuka Oval had a wrist spinner being the game changer

Team India have played only one match at the Manuka Oval to date, which ended up being notable for a peculiar instance. Wrist spinner Yuzvendra Chahal came on as a concussion substitute for the injured Ravindra Jadeja, and ended up being the match-winner with his spell of 3-25, while defending a 162-run target.

He dismissed key batters like Aaron Finch, Matthew Wade, and Steve Smith in his spell to be named player of the match as well. A thing to note is that Chahal's prolific spell is not a one-off outing at the venue since it has proven to have something in it for the spinners.

Of the 12 most successful bowlers at the venue in terms of average, who have picked up at least three wickets, four are spinners, with the other names being Maheesh Theekshana, Ashton Agar, and Adam Zampa.

Recent T20 matches held at the venue also support the case for a wrist spinner as they have bagged 26 wickets across the last 10 matches at an average of 20.30 and an economy of 7.71. Seamers, on the other hand, have picked 85 wickets in the same time frame with an average of 23.46 and an economy rate of 8.05.

#2 Jasprit Bumrah's pace support cast without Arshdeep Singh is not ideal

Assuming that India go all out with three spinners in the playing XI, it will leave Jasprit Bumrah in a similar conundrum as in the 2025 Asia Cup. On that occasion, three factors supported India's argument. Hardik Pandya's presence, inferior oppositions, and subcontinent conditions. However, here, none of them apply.

Hardik Pandya's efficiency has often allowed India to go all-out with spinners and ignore the second frontline seamer. However, without him, the ploy is a massive risk, one which Australia can completely capitalize on.

Skipper Suryakumar Yadav will only have Harshit Rana and Shivam Dube to lean on outside of Bumrah. Furthermore, if India still wishes to have the pace spearhead bowl three overs in the powerplay, then the death bowling becomes another massive concern.

Both Rana and Dube have shown promising signs of late, but featuring them in the thick of things rather than support bowlers in these conditions, and such high-quality oppositions, might be a massive step up, that may backfire.

#3 Both Arshdeep and Kuldeep have solid T20I numbers in Australia

As far as merit in Australian conditions are conditions, both Kuldeep Yadav and Arshdeep Singh have decent credentials to be included. The left-arm pacer featured Down Under during the 2022 T20 World Cup, and had a stellar campaign. He picked up 10 wickets in six matches at an average of 15.60 and an economy of 7.80.

Kuldeep, on the other hand, does not have a defining sample size, but has promising numbers. In three matches, he has taken four wickets at an average of 16.50 and an economy of just 5.50.

India would ideally love to have both in their playing XI, but since that compromises batting depth, and potentially leaves out Varun Chakaravarthy, it cannot be an option that can be pursued for now.

Conclusion:

While both bowlers make more than a decent case for their inclusion, Arshdeep Singh is near indispensable for India in this particular instance, primarily due to his positive match-ups against Mitchell Marsh and Travis Head, among other factors like death bowling.

Kuldeep Yadav nearly ticks all the boxes, but to feature him as a third spinner, since Varun Chakaravarthy and Axar Patel are already locked in, over someone like Arshdeep Singh, who offers a lot more across all three phases and ensures the load is not entirely on Bumrah, does not make sense.