"He probably is close to Bryce Harper" - Mets analyst argues hot free agent falls short of Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani tier

Analyst James Schiano doesn't think a potential megadeal for Kyle Tucker makes sense for the New York Mets. For context, free agent Tucker is arguably the biggest free agent available this offseason. Multiple projections have him as a $40 million AAV (Average Annual Value) player.

Schianno acknowledges that the 28-year-old outfielder is a high-end player with strong production. However, he doesn't see Tucker as a generational talent, making him a risk investment for a potential long-term deal.

The analyst shared his thoughts about Tucker's fit with the Mets on Monday's episode of "Mets'd Up podcast" with Marc Luino.

"Kyle Tucker is not giving you the defensive value either," Schianno said. "Like to me, he is production-wise, has all the superstar things that he does in the near term, and he has had some major superstar seasons."

The analyst cited Tucker's 2021, 2022 and 2023 campaigns, during which his WAR (Wins Above Replacement) was more than five. However, Schianno is opposed to some fans and analysts comparing Tucker to the ultra-elite players.

"I think people are trying to make him a Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, because those guys have been available for the last three offseasons. He's nowhere close to any of those guys," said Schianno (Timestamp: 7:22). "He probably is close to Bryce Harper than those guys."

Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge have seven MVP titles between them. Meanwhile, Juan Soto has been a perennial MVP contender, finishing in the top three three times. Therefore, comparing Tucker to this trio seems far-fetched.

Moreover, Ohtani and Soto have contracts equal to or over $700 million, while Judge is third behind the duo in AAV ($40 million) among active MLB sluggers. This makes Tucker's $400 million projection appear inflated.

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James Schiano makes more points against Kyle Tucker's fit with the Mets

In the same conversation, analyst James Schiano said that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would be a better long-term investment for the Mets than Kyle Tucker. It won't likely happen as Guerrero has already signed a 14-year, $500 million contract extension with the Blue Jays in April.

The analyst also doesn't believe Tucker's massive contract projection aligns with the Mets' roster priorities.

"It makes it a little bit hard for me to rationalize why the Mets, specifically with having Juan Soto for the long-term contract, with I think still prioritizing in some ways Pete Alonso, would give Kyle Tucker the megadeal that he seeks," Schianno said (Timestamp: 8:19).

While Alonso is a free agent, the chances of the Mets re-signing him are high. However, his projected AAV is close to $30 million. Add in Soto's $51 million AAV, and the Mets won't likely give a massive contract to rope in Tucker, as they will have to pay a huge luxury tax.